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Seats that changed parties

20192022ChangeDirectionElectorate
64 51
Celia Hammond
Kate Chaney
-13 Curtin
64 52
Chris Hayes
Dai Le
-12 Fowler
63 52
Jason Falinski
Sophie Scamps
-11 Mackellar
61 52
Ben Morton
Sam Lim
-9 Tangney
57 51
John Alexander
Jerome Laxale
-6 Bennelong
62 56
Michelle Landry
Michelle Landry
-6 Capricornia
59 53
Ken O'Dowd
Colin Boyce
-6 Flynn
59 53
Trent Zimmerman
Kylea Tink
-6 North Sydney
58 53
Tim Wilson
Zoe Daniel
-5 Goldstein
60 56
Andrew Laming
Henry Pike
-4 Bowman
55 51
Tony Smith
Aaron Violi
-4 Casey
65 61
George Christensen
Andrew Willcox
-4 Dawson
63 59
Ted O'Brien
Ted O'Brien
-4 Fairfax
63 59
Andrew Wallace
Andrew Wallace
-4 Fisher
59 55
Bert van Manen
Bert van Manen
-4 Forde
65 61
Keith Pitt
Keith Pitt
-4 Hinkler
65 61
Angie Bell
Angie Bell
-4 Moncrieff
56 52
Julian Simmonds
Elizabeth Watson-Brown
-4 Ryan
65 61
Scott Buchholz
Scott Buchholz
-4 Wright
57 54
Ross Vasta
Ross Vasta
-3 Bonner
55 52
Peter Dutton
Peter Dutton
-3 Dickson
64 61
Stuart Robert
Stuart Robert
-3 Fadden
56 53
Josh Frydenberg
Monique Ryan
-3 Kooyong
58 55
Luke Howarth
Luke Howarth
-3 Petrie
54 52
Katie Allen
Michelle Ananda-Rajah
-2 Higgins
62 60
Karen Andrews
Karen Andrews
-2 McPherson
54 52
Lucy Wicks
Gordon Reid
-2 Robertson
54 53
Warren Entsch
Warren Entsch
-1 Leichhardt
63 62
Llew O'Brien
Llew O'Brien
-1 Wide Bay
55 55
Ken Wyatt
Tanya Lawrence
0 Hasluck
72 72
David Littleproud
David Littleproud
0 Maranoa
53 53
Terry Young
Terry Young
0 Longman
55 56
Trevor Evans
Stephen Bates
1 Brisbane
58 59
Christian Porter
Tracey Roberts
1 Pearce
51 53
Louise Miller-Frost
Nicolle Flint
2 Boothby
53 55
Fiona Martin
Sally Sitou
2 Reid
51 54
Dave Sharma
Allegra Spender
3 Wentworth
67 70
John McVeigh
Garth Hamilton
3 Groom
58 62
Phillip Thompson
Phillip Thompson
4 Herbert
51 56
Carina Garland
Gladys Liu
5 Chisholm
53 59
Steve Irons
Zaneta Mascarenhas
6 Swan
53 60
Terri Butler
Max Chandler-Mather
7 Griffith

Seats that became more marginal

20192019ChangeDirectionElectorate
70 55
Damian Drum
Sam Birrell
-15 Nicholls
64 51
Celia Hammond
Kate Chaney
-13 Curtin
64 52
Chris Hayes
Dai Le
-12 Fowler
72 60
Adam Bandt
Adam Bandt
-12 Melbourne
67 56
Paul Fletcher
Paul Fletcher
-11 Bradfield
65 54
Melissa Price
Melissa Price
-11 Durack
63 52
Jason Falinski
Sophie Scamps
-11 Mackellar
62 51
Ian Goodenough
Ian Goodenough
-11 Moore
65 55
Nola Marino
Nola Marino
-10 Forrest
61 52
Ben Morton
Sam Lim
-9 Tangney
62 54
Andrew Hastie
Andrew Hastie
-8 Canning
69 61
Alex Hawke
Alex Hawke
-8 Mitchell
60 53
Alan Tudge
Alan Tudge
-7 Aston
64 57
Julian Hill
Julian Hill
-7 Bruce
69 62
Maria Vamvakinou
Maria Vamvakinou
-7 Calwell
58 51
Kevin Andrews
Keith Wolahan
-7 Menzies
64 57
Rick Wilson
Rick Wilson
-7 O'Connor
72 65
Andrew Giles
Andrew Giles
-7 Scullin
57 51
John Alexander
Jerome Laxale
-6 Bennelong
62 56
Michelle Landry
Michelle Landry
-6 Capricornia
69 63
Scott Morrison
Scott Morrison
-6 Cook
59 53
Ken O'Dowd
Colin Boyce
-6 Flynn
59 53
Trent Zimmerman
Kylea Tink
-6 North Sydney
57 51
James Stevens
James Stevens
-6 Sturt
66 61
Julian Leeser
Julian Leeser
-5 Berowra
67 62
Alicia Payne
Alicia Payne
-5 Canberra
65 60
Ged Kearney
Ged Kearney
-5 Cooper
55 50
Michael Sukkar
Michael Sukkar
-5 Deakin
58 53
Tim Wilson
Zoe Daniel
-5 Goldstein
65 60
Brendan O'Connor
Brendan O'Connor
-5 Gorton
63 58
Angus Taylor
Angus Taylor
-5 Hume

Seats that became safer

20192019ChangeDirectionElectorate
57 67
Madeleine King
Madeleine King
10 Brand
55 65
Matt Keogh
Matt Keogh
10 Burt
55 65
Patrick Gorman
Patrick Gorman
10 Perth
57 67
Josh Wilson
Josh Wilson
10 Fremantle
51 60
Anne Aly
Anne Aly
9 Cowan
56 65
Clare O'Neil
Clare O'Neil
9 Hotham
51 60
Anika Wells
Anika Wells
9 Lilley
53 61
Michelle Rowland
Michelle Rowland
8 Greenway
51 59
Helen Haines
Helen Haines
8 Indi
50 58
Susan Templeman
Susan Templeman
8 Macquarie
55 63
Rebekha Sharkie
Rebekha Sharkie
8 Mayo
51 58
Libby Coker
Libby Coker
7 Corangamite
51 58
Mike Kelly
Kristy McBain
7 Eden-Monaro
53 60
Terri Butler
Max Chandler-Mather
7 Griffith
52 59
Graham Perrett
Graham Perrett
7 Moreton
59 65
Linda Burney
Linda Burney
6 Barton
61 67
Sussan Ley
Sussan Ley
6 Farrer
59 65
Matt Thistlethwaite
Matt Thistlethwaite
6 Kingsford Smith
56 62
Josh Burns
Josh Burns
6 Macnamara
56 62
Milton Dick
Milton Dick
6 Oxley
53 59
Luke Gosling
Luke Gosling
6 Solomon
53 59
Steve Irons
Zaneta Mascarenhas
6 Swan
58 63
David Smith
David Smith
5 Bean
51 56
Carina Garland
Gladys Liu
5 Chisholm
57 62
Kate Thwaites
Kate Thwaites
5 Jagajaga
54 59
Jason Wood
Jason Wood
5 La Trobe
53 58
Gavin Pearce
Gavin Pearce
5 Braddon

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DEMOCRACY
[8] ACCOUNTABILITY
[7] INFLUENCE
[5] PRIVACY
[4] DEMOCRACY
[4] CHARITIES
[3] CENSUS
[3] THINKTANKS
[3] WORKER RIGHTS
[2] MEDIA BIAS
[8] ACCOUNTABILITY
[7] INFLUENCE
[5] PRIVACY
[4] DEMOCRACY
[4] CHARITIES
[3] CENSUS
[3] THINKTANKS
[3] WORKER RIGHTS
[2] MEDIA BIAS

Red Flags And Red Pills
Rosie Williams, BA (Sociology)
Social media, political division and progress

This tweet was apparently intended for a completely different thread posted by another account I had retweeted (seeking caption suggestions for Scott Morrison enjoying his leisure). Before I received an apology and the tweet was deleted, I spent an hour baffled over what had inspired what appeared to be public trolling from a prominant journalist and union representative towards myself, an impoverished crowdfunded citizen journalist?

At the time I was dealing with past abuse issues from my childhood so it seemed particularly odd to be the subject of criticism from a progressive journalist.

The tweet is just one example of behaviour we have all come to embrace and engage in and it is behaviour which I have recently begun to question at a very fundamental level for what is driving it and where that road ends.

A lot of transparency work focuses on the role powerful interests play in corrupting policy and funding decisions. However, searching for evidence to fuel political scandals in an effort to take political scalps is only one approach to social and political change.

Beyond the randomly uncovered scandals, there are ongoing influences playing in the background (ie what makes people vote a certain way regardless of the scandals that come and go) and the voters who play a significant role in electoral outcomes and key policy debates.

But taking a dispassionate view of why people make decisions which the left consider politically incorrect, even if only to better understand how to sway those votes, comes with its own risks: the risk of being seen to be challenging progressive ideology and the abuse that such a misconception can unleash.

Progressives did not come to view posting offensive tweets or inciting large scale abuse toward people they have never met as an effective strategy for social change without help. Algorithms reinforce and magnify strong emotional responses. Posts that spike anger, whether interpreted as intended or not, are the ones most likely to generate engagement.

Anything nuanced or long-winded enough to clarify misconceptions to get in front of knee-jerk responses sink like stones in that ocean, never to be considered, much less debated.

The posts people do respond to then generate more responses and on and on it goes up the chain until at the top you have posts that are considered 'viral'.

That infection is the terminology given to such posts speaks to the valourisation of strong emotion (in this case moral outrage) over careful and informed analysis. In a world spilling over with bad news, we can only respond to those posts which most trigger our moral outrage or that catch our attention through the bizarre.

Solutions to complex problems require a will to get beyond outrage and our desire to feel morally superior or to be entertained. I suspect it is the valourisation of moral outrage that is a key factor inhibiting the left from understanding how and why it is not making progress where it feels it should.

The success of social media pile-ons and blacklisting anything perceived to be politically incorrect has convinced progressives that might is right. People who otherwise feel they have little voice in policy making feel they are doing something useful by encouraging these kinds of activities and the left feels it is making progress.

With so much conservative blood in the water, suggesting that bullying perceived enemies may not be the answer to every problem is likely to be viewed as another target for the cross-hairs, and make the messenger of such a view a candidate for political, social and financial crucifixion.

Cancelling people is now a proud tradition of the left and it is not that undermining powerful conservative voices is a bad thing but that so many people now invest a lot of time and energy into pre-emptively cancelling or bullying into line anyone who appears not to side with their views. This iron-fisted solidarity has some very unhelpful side-effects.

Working in this environment requires me to choose between telling people what they want to hear and watching them clap along to the beat of the approved narrative or to write what I think people need to hear with the risk of becoming political roadkill. Such work exacts a high price from anyone sharing inconvenient truths over partisan rhetoric. After all, corruption is not solely the province of conservative governments.

So where does that leave researchers or journalists committed to revealing corruption wherever it is found or questioning the accepted narrative? Being ignored for the inconvenient partisan implications or de-funded and forced back on welfare. So much for progressive values, but this is the reality the truth faces in this environment and why transparency projects struggle so much for financial sustainability.

I've always found it particularly ironic that so much of Twitter is devoted to demanding transparency and the truth but whenever the truth does not fit with partisan interests, it is ignored at best or at worst, subject to attack.

However, the costs are not just personal or subjective. There are wider implications to the way social media works. One is that nuance can not fit into this model. The right-left divide has become an angry machine that spits every single word, action or idea to one side or the other and there is nothing in-between. That conservative pundits are key benefactors of our outrage is hardly an endorsement of its merit.

If the solution to a better democracy is in fact not at the extremes but in the two sides (at the level of voters making political choices) understanding where the other is coming from then this machine that constantly reinforces a winner-takes-all approach to any and all public communication or intellectual discourse has become the enemy of progress- the one thing we are all trying to achieve.

I suspect that progress from the left can not come from a might-is-right approach and that we are seeing the effect of this approach in the hardening of both extremes as each side retreats further and further into their own worlds, reinforcing their own beliefs (with the help of social media algorithms) and neither side believing the other could have anything valid to say.

Few seem to consider the negative impacts that the circle of validation that social media creates might be paving the way for the very things they are so against, not just in those they perceive as enemies but also within themselves.

When we endorse only the enmity social media and journalism feed off, or when we assume we don't need to understand because we can simply force our views on the other, we lose the opportunity to understand what we are missing.

I think we need to consider that if we do not care to listen to what people who do not vote our way think or why, that someone else will come and fill the void.

Some very dangerous interests benefit from the increasingly divided political discourse that moves conservatives and progressives further and further apart the longer we participate in it.

If we don't want to be surprised that people vote for opposition policies and candidates elected for their promise to empower the same people we refuse to listen to then we need to step out of the binary divide long enough to look at the long term consequences of our own behaviours. If we fail to do this, we can hardly expect it of those we consider less informed.