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Tony Pasin
Barton
ALP
Linda Burney
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Bean
ALP
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Lisa Chesters
Bennelong
ALP
Jerome Laxale
Berowra
LIBS
Julian Leeser
Blair
ALP
Shayne Neumann
Blaxland
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Jason Clare
Bonner
LIBS
Ross Vasta
Boothby
ALP
Nicolle Flint
Bowman
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Henry Pike
Bradfield
LIBS
Paul Fletcher
Brand
ALP
Madeleine King
Brisbane
GREENS
Stephen Bates
Bruce
ALP
Julian Hill
Burt
ALP
Matt Keogh
Calare
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Andrew Gee
Calwell
ALP
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Canberra
ALP
Alicia Payne
Canning
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Capricornia
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Michelle Landry
Casey
ALP
Aaron Violi
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Ed Husic
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ALP
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Clark
IND
Andrew Wilkie
Cook
LIBS
Scott Morrison
Cooper
ALP
Ged Kearney
Corangamite
ALP
Libby Coker
Corio
ALP
Richard Marles
Cowan
ALP
Anne Aly
Cowper
NATS
Pat Conaghan
Cunningham
ALP
Alison Byrnes
Curtin
IND
Kate Chaney
Dawson
LIBS
Andrew Willcox
Deakin
LIBS
Michael Sukkar
Dickson
LIBS
Peter Dutton
Dobell
ALP
Emma McBride
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ALP
Peta Murphy
Durack
LIBS
Melissa Price
Eden-Monaro
ALP
Kristy McBain
Fadden
LIBS
Stuart Robert
Fairfax
LIBS
Ted O'Brien
Farrer
LIBS
Sussan Ley
Fenner
ALP
Andrew Leigh
Fisher
LIBS
Andrew Wallace
Flinders
LIBS
Zoe McKenzie
Flynn
LIBS
Colin Boyce
Forde
LIBS
Bert van Manen
Forrest
LIBS
Nola Marino
Fowler
IND
Dai Le
Franklin
ALP
Julie Collins
Gellibrand
ALP
Tim Watts
Gilmore
ALP
Fiona Phillips
Gippsland
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Darren Chester
Goldstein
IND
Zoe Daniel
Gorton
ALP
Brendan O'Connor
Grayndler
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Anthony Albanese
Greenway
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Michelle Rowland
Grey
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Rowan Ramsey
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Mark Butler
Hinkler
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Cassandra Fernando
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Hume
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Angus Taylor
Hunter
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Dan Repacholi
Indi
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Mark Dreyfus
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Kennedy
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Bob Katter
Kingsford Smith
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Kingston
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Amanda Rishworth
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La Trobe
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Jason Wood
Lalor
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Joanne Ryan
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Warren Entsch
Lilley
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Lindsay
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Melissa McIntosh
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David Gillespie
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Mike Freelander
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Sophie Scamps
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Tony Zappia
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David Littleproud
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Seats that changed parties

20192022ChangeDirectionElectorate
64 51
Celia Hammond
Kate Chaney
-13 Curtin
64 52
Chris Hayes
Dai Le
-12 Fowler
63 52
Jason Falinski
Sophie Scamps
-11 Mackellar
61 52
Ben Morton
Sam Lim
-9 Tangney
57 51
John Alexander
Jerome Laxale
-6 Bennelong
62 56
Michelle Landry
Michelle Landry
-6 Capricornia
59 53
Ken O'Dowd
Colin Boyce
-6 Flynn
59 53
Trent Zimmerman
Kylea Tink
-6 North Sydney
58 53
Tim Wilson
Zoe Daniel
-5 Goldstein
60 56
Andrew Laming
Henry Pike
-4 Bowman
55 51
Tony Smith
Aaron Violi
-4 Casey
65 61
George Christensen
Andrew Willcox
-4 Dawson
63 59
Ted O'Brien
Ted O'Brien
-4 Fairfax
63 59
Andrew Wallace
Andrew Wallace
-4 Fisher
59 55
Bert van Manen
Bert van Manen
-4 Forde
65 61
Keith Pitt
Keith Pitt
-4 Hinkler
65 61
Angie Bell
Angie Bell
-4 Moncrieff
56 52
Julian Simmonds
Elizabeth Watson-Brown
-4 Ryan
65 61
Scott Buchholz
Scott Buchholz
-4 Wright
57 54
Ross Vasta
Ross Vasta
-3 Bonner
55 52
Peter Dutton
Peter Dutton
-3 Dickson
64 61
Stuart Robert
Stuart Robert
-3 Fadden
56 53
Josh Frydenberg
Monique Ryan
-3 Kooyong
58 55
Luke Howarth
Luke Howarth
-3 Petrie
54 52
Katie Allen
Michelle Ananda-Rajah
-2 Higgins
62 60
Karen Andrews
Karen Andrews
-2 McPherson
54 52
Lucy Wicks
Gordon Reid
-2 Robertson
54 53
Warren Entsch
Warren Entsch
-1 Leichhardt
63 62
Llew O'Brien
Llew O'Brien
-1 Wide Bay
55 55
Ken Wyatt
Tanya Lawrence
0 Hasluck
72 72
David Littleproud
David Littleproud
0 Maranoa
53 53
Terry Young
Terry Young
0 Longman
55 56
Trevor Evans
Stephen Bates
1 Brisbane
58 59
Christian Porter
Tracey Roberts
1 Pearce
51 53
Louise Miller-Frost
Nicolle Flint
2 Boothby
53 55
Fiona Martin
Sally Sitou
2 Reid
51 54
Dave Sharma
Allegra Spender
3 Wentworth
67 70
John McVeigh
Garth Hamilton
3 Groom
58 62
Phillip Thompson
Phillip Thompson
4 Herbert
51 56
Carina Garland
Gladys Liu
5 Chisholm
53 59
Steve Irons
Zaneta Mascarenhas
6 Swan
53 60
Terri Butler
Max Chandler-Mather
7 Griffith

Seats that became more marginal

20192019ChangeDirectionElectorate
70 55
Damian Drum
Sam Birrell
-15 Nicholls
64 51
Celia Hammond
Kate Chaney
-13 Curtin
64 52
Chris Hayes
Dai Le
-12 Fowler
72 60
Adam Bandt
Adam Bandt
-12 Melbourne
67 56
Paul Fletcher
Paul Fletcher
-11 Bradfield
65 54
Melissa Price
Melissa Price
-11 Durack
63 52
Jason Falinski
Sophie Scamps
-11 Mackellar
62 51
Ian Goodenough
Ian Goodenough
-11 Moore
65 55
Nola Marino
Nola Marino
-10 Forrest
61 52
Ben Morton
Sam Lim
-9 Tangney
62 54
Andrew Hastie
Andrew Hastie
-8 Canning
69 61
Alex Hawke
Alex Hawke
-8 Mitchell
60 53
Alan Tudge
Alan Tudge
-7 Aston
64 57
Julian Hill
Julian Hill
-7 Bruce
69 62
Maria Vamvakinou
Maria Vamvakinou
-7 Calwell
58 51
Kevin Andrews
Keith Wolahan
-7 Menzies
64 57
Rick Wilson
Rick Wilson
-7 O'Connor
72 65
Andrew Giles
Andrew Giles
-7 Scullin
57 51
John Alexander
Jerome Laxale
-6 Bennelong
62 56
Michelle Landry
Michelle Landry
-6 Capricornia
69 63
Scott Morrison
Scott Morrison
-6 Cook
59 53
Ken O'Dowd
Colin Boyce
-6 Flynn
59 53
Trent Zimmerman
Kylea Tink
-6 North Sydney
57 51
James Stevens
James Stevens
-6 Sturt
66 61
Julian Leeser
Julian Leeser
-5 Berowra
67 62
Alicia Payne
Alicia Payne
-5 Canberra
65 60
Ged Kearney
Ged Kearney
-5 Cooper
55 50
Michael Sukkar
Michael Sukkar
-5 Deakin
58 53
Tim Wilson
Zoe Daniel
-5 Goldstein
65 60
Brendan O'Connor
Brendan O'Connor
-5 Gorton
63 58
Angus Taylor
Angus Taylor
-5 Hume

Seats that became safer

20192019ChangeDirectionElectorate
57 67
Madeleine King
Madeleine King
10 Brand
55 65
Matt Keogh
Matt Keogh
10 Burt
55 65
Patrick Gorman
Patrick Gorman
10 Perth
57 67
Josh Wilson
Josh Wilson
10 Fremantle
51 60
Anne Aly
Anne Aly
9 Cowan
56 65
Clare O'Neil
Clare O'Neil
9 Hotham
51 60
Anika Wells
Anika Wells
9 Lilley
53 61
Michelle Rowland
Michelle Rowland
8 Greenway
51 59
Helen Haines
Helen Haines
8 Indi
50 58
Susan Templeman
Susan Templeman
8 Macquarie
55 63
Rebekha Sharkie
Rebekha Sharkie
8 Mayo
51 58
Libby Coker
Libby Coker
7 Corangamite
51 58
Mike Kelly
Kristy McBain
7 Eden-Monaro
53 60
Terri Butler
Max Chandler-Mather
7 Griffith
52 59
Graham Perrett
Graham Perrett
7 Moreton
59 65
Linda Burney
Linda Burney
6 Barton
61 67
Sussan Ley
Sussan Ley
6 Farrer
59 65
Matt Thistlethwaite
Matt Thistlethwaite
6 Kingsford Smith
56 62
Josh Burns
Josh Burns
6 Macnamara
56 62
Milton Dick
Milton Dick
6 Oxley
53 59
Luke Gosling
Luke Gosling
6 Solomon
53 59
Steve Irons
Zaneta Mascarenhas
6 Swan
58 63
David Smith
David Smith
5 Bean
51 56
Carina Garland
Gladys Liu
5 Chisholm
57 62
Kate Thwaites
Kate Thwaites
5 Jagajaga
54 59
Jason Wood
Jason Wood
5 La Trobe
53 58
Gavin Pearce
Gavin Pearce
5 Braddon

Search

DEMOCRACY
[8] ACCOUNTABILITY
[7] INFLUENCE
[5] PRIVACY
[4] DEMOCRACY
[4] CHARITIES
[3] CENSUS
[3] THINKTANKS
[3] WORKER RIGHTS
[2] MEDIA BIAS
[8] ACCOUNTABILITY
[7] INFLUENCE
[5] PRIVACY
[4] DEMOCRACY
[4] CHARITIES
[3] CENSUS
[3] THINKTANKS
[3] WORKER RIGHTS
[2] MEDIA BIAS

The Tipping Point
Rosie Williams, BA (Sociology)
A report on the voting habits of Australians

There is a well-known saying that 'If you are not a liberal at 25, you have no heart. If you are not a conservative at 35, you have no brain' Source Unknown.

The age of thirty-five is actually the point where Australians begin voting more conservatively, according to researchers, both here and abroad.

Labor and the Greens dominate the 18-24 and 25-34 categories, with the Coalition primary vote at 35% or below. The Coalition primary is ahead of Labor’s in the 35-49 category, but Labor still wins this category narrowly on Greens preferences. In the 50-64 category, the Coalition primary is just short of 50%, and it clearly wins that category. Senior citizens are very pro-Coalition; here, the Coalition has 57% of the primary vote, compared to Labor’s 33.5% and the Greens only have 3.5% in that category. This is the demographic group where the Coalition makes up for its huge deficit among young people.
In Britain, age is a strong predictor of how someone will vote in an election. Older people are more supportive of the Conservatives, while younger people more supportive of Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and more recently, the Greens. This is not a recent phenomenon. The graph below shows the pattern of Conservative support by age-group for five elections from the last 50 years, based on data from the British Election Study. Older people are always more likely to support the Conservatives.

For further reading, check out The 2019 Australian Federal Election Study, ANU. See also Economy, Health, Climate Change Top Voter Issues in 2020, by The Australian Institute for current research.

Even where the policy issues believed to swing elections are analysed, it is those of importance to older people that decide Australia's elections. Labor's 2016 MediScare campaign was met with Liberal's ALP death tax in 2019 because health and franking credits are issues that rate most highly with older voters given that on average, they both have more wealth and also more health care needs.

Older Australians were more likely than younger people to identify the economy and health as the most important national political issue. Younger Australians were more likely than older people to identify the environment and education as the most important issue. The Australia Institutite

It is simple to detect the relationship between age and voting preferences, but the numbers do not shed any light on why it is, for example, that people do not vote increasingly progressive as they age- only that the drift into conservativism is as enduring as it is pervasive.

It is tempting to hope that today's children will skew politics to the left as they become the adults of tomorrow, but I think it worth considering the possibility that moving into the workforce is actually the overriding influence the longer one spends in the workforce, the more beholden people become to the system they once resented.

This would both explain the current relationship between age and conservativism and imply that little is likely to change over the long term - if we assume the future is likely to reflect the past. I will return to this follow-up question later.

II think it worth wondering whether one of the reasons people vote more conservatively with age is because they become more sensitive to the punishments applied to anyone who does not go along with the status-quo?

Whistleblowers are salient examples of what happens to middle-class people who go against the establishment. I have engaged with a number first hand and if there was a group of people who I have felt most akin to (as someone excluded from social and economic inclusion for my entire life), it is these people: individuals who go against the system and are broken by the vast majority who remain within it.

Those who risk their relationship with the legal and economic powers doling out rewards or punishments are treated so punitively both on a social and professional level that they often spend the rest of their lives dealing with the consequences of that decision.

Unless they are intact and fortunate enough to overcome deliberate efforts to destroy their professional and personal credibility, they soon find out how brutal Australia is to anyone outside of the workforce. How and why they were excluded from participation does little to mediate the ostracism from the networks they depended on.

I imagine that most self-respecting middle and working-class folk like to think they would take the high road, but when those who do are broken for their courage, I think it seems reasonable to imagine that protecting one's self and family seems entirely justified to most.

While whistleblowers serve as extreme examples, they are only extreme in the sense that they experience a social and economic 'fall from grace' and can end up experiencing the poverty and demonisation that others are born into and must attempt to overcome without ever having known what it means to be a valued and respected member of society.

While it might be tempting to malign people for enjoying the privilege of secure employment, intergenerational wealth and the social capital this enables, when the alternative is considered, it would seem that most people decide to go along to get along.

Based on that premise, it seems reasonable to assume that those who do this for the longest become those most invested in maintaining the status quo. After all, they have the most to lose in any shake-up of the social or economic order and those who are without status and liveable incomes have the least to lose.

I propose the un-desirability of giving up one's privilege as one reason contributing to the relationship between age and voting conservative that is found in post-election surveys. That drift is readily observable when listing electorates by proportion of older voters.

I have also raised the question of whether the future will reflect the past. There are currently both short-term issues in Covid-19 and long-term issues in climate change along with the re-emerging prominence of gender and race issues to grapple with.

The pandemic has been used to push voters to the extremes both on among the right and the left.

On the one hand, the rising fascism and may overcome Western democratic ideals and either swing the pendulum further toward extremism or at a minimum, act as pushback against the rise of progressive causes.

Alternatively, the rising fascism may push progressives and moderate conservatives to unite in a way they did not need to prior to their own position in the social order coming under threat from the extreme right.

This drift is seen in the split among conservatives and the rise of moderate independents- probably the strategy most likely to divide otherwise Liberal voters from their party.

What the independent Voices movement actually means for progressive policy is worth considering. While they may gain votes for their concern for climate change, that does not imply they will support other progressive causes.

Having said that, if emerging independents have pushed Labor to roll back the more egregious abuses of our welfare system such as #robodebt and the cashless welfare card, the independents will have influenced progressive values beyond climate policy.

If that comes to pass, then perhaps there is hope that Australia's poor will one day have reason to imagine democracy is capable of giving us a more equal place in the world instead of just bloating the middle class to a size that protects Western democracies from an underclass revolt.

ElectorateAges 35-50 Ages 18-34

Electorates are listed by those with most older voters first